Post Lockdown – A great challenge before the Indian Economy

Sayantan Mallik, Editor-In Chief

While speaking about the Economic Scenario of a developing country like India, it would be worth mentioning to recall the two important phases of Indian Economy- The demonetization of Rupees five hundred and one thousand notes and the enforcement of The Goods and Service Tax (GST). The recent surveys and evaluation by economists clearly indicated that after these decisions the position of the Indian economy tends to deteriorate. Even though India struggled to get back to its position in the world Economic scenario, the situation worsened with the outbreak of Pandemic COVID 19. It was in the last quarter of Financial Year 2019-2020 that evidence of the virus was found in Indians too. By that point of time, the disease tends to become out of control as there was no vaccine to prevent it. The most dangerous part of it was that it could be easily transmitted by any sort of physical contact, forming a chain reaction. The only way to break the chain of transmission was to call on for a period of ‘Lockdown’. On the eve of March 24, 2020, the Hon’ble Indian Prime Minister announced a Countrywide three weeks lockdown, which had been further extended three times for two weeks, three weeks, and two weeks respectively till May 30, 2020, accounting the total lockdown period to be of 70 days.
A ‘developing’ country like India, had to pay high the price of a 70 Days lockdown. To start with the Private Ownership Companies, those who are mainly business houses faced a huge amount of losses which seemed to be irrevocable. The mills, factories, production houses that directly related to goods manufacturing had to face a deadly blow in the period of Lockdown.
To speak about the Information Technology sector, which comprises a considerable section of employment in the modern era, bound to weaken as the business with the foreign companies were not that easy-going in the period. According to Economic analysts-, the Indian IT sector would face a very difficult situation in the Post-Lockdown period as a large number of employees might be terminated to balance the losses of the time.
The Railways-, which serve as the lifeline of the Indian Transport system and a backbone to the Indian Economy should be counted among the worst- affected sector in terms of business. The total railway system was stopped right from March 24, 2020, until May 11, 2020. The situation again worsened further when the Railway Ministry decided to run ‘Shramik Special’ Trains to transfer the migrant workers from their workplace to home. According to the Government Sources-, the Railway ministry granted 85 percent subsidy on the tickets of those ‘Shramik Special trains’.To date, the railway services have not been able to resume to its normalcy.
On July 2, 2020, ‘Care Ratings’ gave shocking predictions about the Indian Economic Growth. According to the report, so published by the organization-, based on a thorough survey, to give an idea of the post-lockdown economic scenario of India, it stated that- ‘the GDP of India might contract by 6.3% in the financial year 2020-2021. Already the GDP of India has slipped down to 4.2 percent, which is a decade low. But the 70 days lockdown would affect the situation in such a manner that the GDP might slip down by 1.5 to 1.6 percent further, the report added. However, the positive side of the report was that – it stressed the agriculture sector-, which could at present bring about positive and considerable economic growth for the Country.
The poor economic growth has already been a matter of concern among the renowned economists of our nation. The former RBI Governor Mr. Raghuram Rajan expressed his anxiousness in a number of interviews to the press and electronic media. Firstly-, he stressed on the development of infrastructures, which is the only way for the upliftment of small and medium business groups. it should include relaxations and grant-in-aid too. Secondly, Rajan advocated for special agricultural reforms and that should be effective up to its full extent. Shri Abhijit Vinayak Bandopadhyay, who received the Nobel Prize for economics in the year 2019, advocated that the Government should Produce notes and circulate them directly among the people. Such a step would increase the cash-flow as well as the ability to purchase would increase. That would be a pathfinder for Nation,s economic growth.
However, the Hon’ble Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi announced a huge sum of Economic package of Rupees twenty lakh crores to strengthen the Indian Economy. Along with that, the Government is following the path of Privatisation to attract investments. But the actual results of these steps could only be seen in the long run. The common people have to wait for the fruitfulness of such policies. But in near future, the poor economic growth would definitely hamper the livelihood of the middle and lower-income group masses. Also, it might give rise to problems like unemployment, Price Rise, Inflation, food crisis, etc. To conclude, it can be said that the forthcoming financial years would pose tougher challenges before the Indian Economy and all that we need to observe is that, by what strategy the Central Government would deal with such challenges.
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